At his Wednesday press conference, Donald Trump confirmed that his first Supreme Court nominee will be announced about two weeks after his inauguration on January 20, setting the stage for likely confirmation hearings starting in March.
"I have a list of 20. I've gone through them. We've met with numerous candidates. They were outstanding in every case,” Trump said. “I'll be making the decision on who we will put up for justice of the United States Supreme Court, a replacement for the great, great Justice [Antonin] Scalia. That will be probably within two weeks of the 20th (of January). So within about two weeks, probably the second week.”
Trump indicated that the first few days of his administration would be taken up with the inauguration and other events, but he also would get to work quickly on administrative matters such as the Court.
"It will be a decision which I very strongly believe in. I think it's one of the reasons I got elected,” Trump added.
In recent years, the average Supreme Court nomination and confirmation process has taken between two and three months since the Reagan era. But a two-week delay in the nomination announcement could lead to the next Justice, if confirmed, to be available only for arguments heard at the Court in late April, missing the late March part of the Court calendar.
Another factor could be a potential Democratic filibuster effort to prevent a Court nominee from getting a floor vote.
The process likely will start with a nomination announcement by Trump along with a public appearance with the nominee. The President then will officially notify the Senate of the nomination in a written statement. This is required under the Constitution’s “Appointments Clause” in Article II, Section 2, Clause 2, which reads that the President “shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint … Judges of the supreme Court.”
Under Senate standing rules going back to 1868, the nomination is sent to the Judiciary Committee, unless the nominee is a current or former Senate member. The Senate Judiciary chair, Charles Grassley, can authorize a pre-hearing investigative stage of the nominee, followed by public hearings and a decision on a recommendation to the full Senate.
Once the nomination is approved by the Judiciary Committee and sent to the entire Senate for a floor vote, a simple majority is needed to confirm the nominee. However, 60 votes are needed under cloture rules for the nomination vote to make it to the floor. The Republicans have 52 seats in the current Senate, meaning they would need eight votes from Democrats or Independents to avoid a filibuster blocking the nomination vote.
The Republicans also have the dramatic option of eliminating the filibuster for a Court nominee using parliamentary moves like those employed by then-Democratic Senate Majority leader Harry Reid in 2013, to end other Senate filibusters.
In 2010, there was a six-week period between Elena Kagan’s nomination and the start of her in-person Senate testimony, which lasted for two days. Kagan’s approval by the Judiciary Committee came three weeks later, with full Senate approval about two weeks after that.
To get a new Justice on the bench by April 17, the start of the last two weeks of Court arguments for the current term, that process would need to be accelerated.
