The winners of eight individual races on Tuesday night will likely determine which party controls the Senate for the next two years. And heading into Election Day, not even the most attentive pundits seem to know the outcome.
As of Monday morning, the website Real Clear Politics, which aggregates polling data, puts the tally in the Senate countdown at 46 seats for each party. That estimate is based on assumptions that seven Senate races featuring John McCain, Rand Paul, Rob Portman and Mark Kirk are likely to go to those candidates.
That leaves the eight Senate races that will be very closely watched on Tuesday night. Depending on the presidential winner, a party will need at least 50 votes to control the Senate, since the Vice President serves as the tie-breaker in Senate votes. If Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election, the Republicans will need 51 Senators to control the chamber. Likewise, if Donald Trump wins, the Democrats would need 51 votes in the Senate.
Here are the races, in alphabetical order by state:
Florida
Patrick Murphy (Dem.)
Marco Rubio (Rep. – Incumbent)
Rubio, for also ran for the Republican presidential nomination this year, has led in most recent polls over Murphy, a former accountant and businessman who is now in the House of Representatives. Rubio won a three-way contest for the Senate in 2010 by a wide margin.
Indiana
Evan Bayh (Dem.)
Todd Young (Rep.)
There is no incumbent in the Indiana race. A former Governor and Senator, Bayh is one of the best-known names in Hoosier state politics. But Young, who served in the Marines and was an attorney before winning a 2011 House race, has made up steady ground against Bayh in the polls.
Missouri
Roy Blunt (Rep. - Incumbent)
Jason Kander (Dem.)
Blunt has led in the polls but the margin has tightened as Election Day nears. Blunt served in the House before winning election to the Senate in 2010. Kander is the Missouri Secretary of State; he served in Afghanistan as a National Guard member.
New Hampshire
Kelly Ayotte (Rep. – Incumbent)
Maggie Hassan (Dem.)
In a high-profile race that could decide the balance in the Senate, the incumbent, Ayotte, takes on Hassan, New Hampshire’s current Governor. Ayotte is a former state attorney general who won a close Senate election in 2010. Hassan is an attorney and former state senator
Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto (Dem.)
Joe Heck (Rep.)
In the race to replace Harry Reid in Nevada, Cortez Masto is expected to use Reid’s political structure in the state as a springboard to the Senate. However, Heck has led in many pre-election polls. Heck currently serves in the House, and he is a physician who also has served in the Army Reserves. Cortez Masto is a former state attorney general.
North Carolina
Richard Burr (Rep. – Incumbent)
Deborah Ross (Dem.)
Burr is a two-term Senator who also served in the House of Representatives. Ross is an attorney who also spent more than 10 years in North Carolina’s state legislature. The polls have varied much in the race and it will also be seen as a key indicator of which party will control the Senate in 2017.
Pennsylvania
Katie McGinty (Dem.)
Pat Toomey (Rep. - Incumbent)
The Center for Responsive Politics calls this content the most-expensive Senate race in the country, with more than $118 million spent on what is expected to be a tight race. Toomey is the incumbent. He won election in 2010 after serving in the state House and working as a businessman. McGinty is a former state official who was Governor Tom Wolf’s chief of staff before starting her Senate campaign.
Wisconsin
Russ Feingold (Dem.)
Ron Johnson (Rep. – Incumbent)
Feingold has been the favorite in this contest for some time, but recent polls show the gap closing to make this a potentially tight race. Feingold is a former three-term U.S. Senator who lost to Johnson back in 2010. Johnson was a successful businessman who defeated Feingold in his first bid for elected office.
