Clinton, Trump move closer to nominations after big night

The smoke has cleared after Tuesday’s presidential primaries in five eastern states, and front runners Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump gained more momentum toward their nominations in July.

The biggest winner on the night was arguably Trump, who easily took the popular vote in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, and padded his pledged delegate count.

This morning, FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver projects that Trump is now performing ahead of the 1,237 delegates needed for a first-ballot nomination in Cleveland. “With Trump’s terrific results in New York last week and even better ones in the five states that voted on Tuesday, Trump is actually running a little ahead of the path-to-1,237,” Silver said.

The key to Trump’s momentum could lie in several factors, Silver said, including voter sympathy that the Republican voting system is “rigged,” as Trump claims, and a general fatigue among anti-Trump voters.

As of Wednesday morning, Trump had an estimated 957 pledged delegates. Before Tuesday’s primary, Richard E. Berg-Andersson from The Green Papers believed if Trump could reach 925 delegates after the April 26 primaries, "his campaign is in pretty good shape" heading toward the convention.

To hit that mark, Trump needed a near-sweep in New York, all the at-large delegates in Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, and 40 percent of the allocated delegates in Connecticut, Rhode Island and Maryland. (And that doesn't include Pennsylvania's unpledged delegates.) Trump outperformed all those measures.

It was also a big night for Hillary Clinton and her supporters. Clinton took the popular vote in four of five states, with significant wins in Pennsylvania and Maryland. (Bernie Sanders won in Rhode Island.)

With Clinton also expected to take most of the Super Delegates in those five states, she is within striking distance of the nomination. The Green Papers estimates that Clinton has 2,143 of the 2,383 delegates needed for a first-ballot nomination in Philadelphia, which includes her projected Super Delegates.

There are an estimated 1,243 delegates still in play, Clinton just needs 243 of them for the nomination. What’s unsure is if Clinton would wrap up the nomination before the June 7 primaries that include California and New Jersey.